Winning strategies : Sports betting and online casinos.
It is important to know what strategies work in sports betting and at online casinos if you want to play regularly in order to increase your bankroll. This guide is designed for people who want to raise their level to win more money. This is an introducing guide, more in-depth analysis will be present in the book I will soon release. Recreational gamblers can also learn about these gambling methods that work in sports betting. There are currently 5 main categories.
Value betting is probably the best known method today. This approach can be broken down into several sub-methods. The general principle is to detect pricing errors on the various sportsbooks you have ( i.e. odds that are too high for a given event). The odds reflect the probability of occurrence of the event in question, which is assessed by the sportsbook. If this probability of occurrence is underestimated (odds too high), then taking a bet is interesting in the long run. For example, odds of 2.5 are associated with an implied probability of 100/2.5=40%. If you believe that the true probability of the event occurring is 50% then you should take the bet on the 2.5 odds. This principle applies to all value betting methods. The most popular methods are the following:
- The classic method that most bettors use is the analysis of the matches by means of a detailed knowledge of sports on which they bet, which allows them to better evaluate the odds on the bookmakers.
- There is an automated derivative of this method. Sophisticated systems can also be successful in the long run. These are pre-determined strategies that require several criteria to be met before a bet is made. These strategies usually need to be revised over time as sportsbooks are constantly trying to correct their rating errors.
- Another interesting strategy is to take advantage of misprices on small bookies by using odds offered by the more serious bookies.
- Quantitative models, although complicated and associated with a low ROI, can detect many pricing errors if they outperform both the models used by the sportsbook and the margin set at the time the odds are released.
Value betting is a risky strategy unlike other strategies that will be developed later in this guide. It is therefore essential to evaluate its results based on a large sample of bets and to look at performance indicators such as ROI, ROC, success rate or even p-value which is however more complicated to calculate. Expected value and variance are also very important indicators to know in order to evaluate your results in a relevant way.
Trading in sports betting is probably the fastest growing strategy after value betting. It is also a risky strategy. It is performed on betting exchange platforms featured in this guide and noted here. All trading strategies are based on odds movements, meaning that you either place a back bet and then secure a profit by placing a lay bet on lower odds or place a lay bet first and then secure a profit by placing a back bet on higher odds (on the same event). The concept here that will be essential to know is hedging in order to establish an exit strategy with appropriate bets. This strategy is usually time consuming as you have to sit in front of your computer and wait for the odds to fluctuate. A possible alternative to this inconvenience could be sports betting trading software that allows you to automate the strategies by connecting to the betting exchange platform without having to wait in front of your screen. Trading is extremely interesting as you will not be limited if you are winning in the long run. Here you are playing against other players who are taking the opposite bet, with betting exchange platforms making money from commissions on net winnings.
Arbitrage is a method that allows risk-free gains. Although associated with a low ROI, the risk here is completely zero if you exclude unintentional typing errors. The basic principle is to detect simultaneous pricing errors on several sportsbooks and to spread the bets well in order to generate the same risk-free profit regardless of the outcome of the match. To find out if an arbitrage opportunity exists you need to calculate the margin on the market in question or the sum of the implied probabilities, which is the same. An arbitrage opportunity exists only if the sum of the implied probabilities calculated from the odds is less than 100%. For example, if the odds on a 1x2 market are respectively 1.58, 4.4 and 4.8, the total implied probability is 100/1.58 + 100/4.4 + 100/4.8 = 106.85%. This is greater than 100%, so there is no arbitrage opportunity. If, on the other hand, there are odds of 1.7, 4.6, and 5.5, the total implied probability is 100/1.7 + 100/4.6 + 100/5.5 =98.74%. There is an arbitrage opportunity here that allows for the same risk-free payout regardless of the outcome of the match by correctly allocating your bets to the bookies in question. This is an extremely interesting option for risk averse punters. The only drawback is that sportsbooks do not like this practice and will block accounts if they suspect someone of playing this way. Brokers do not block arbitrage players and are therefore attractive to this type of punter. To compare and sign up with the best brokers you can check my rating here. Bookies that might interest you in this case are Pinnacle and more generally those that offer good odds and some security. All this is indicated in my rating by looking at the criteria "margin" and "security" here. Betting exchange platforms are also indicated when you find a lay odds allowing an arbitrage opportunity with another sportsbook.
Matched betting is a method that is mostly risk-free and very similar to arbitrage betting. The difference is that matched betting does not make use of price errors but of promotional offers from both sportsbooks and online casinos, which makes it extremely interesting. In the case of sports betting, the exploitation of promotional offers is risk-free, in contrast to what can be found in the casinos. However, the risk does not make the method unattractive, the important thing is to calculate the expected value in order to play only on lucrative offers. There are both welcome and recurring bonuses. Welcome bonuses are generally more attractive but are offered only once, unlike recurring bonuses which can be used throughout the year. As with arbitrage betting techniques, gaming institutions do not like this practice and limit offers to players suspected of using this method. Despite this, matched betting is still a very profitable way to make money in sports betting and at online casinos, it is just a matter of using it first and then switching to other strategies like value betting. To find out which establishments offer the most interesting bonuses, I invite you to navigate through the different tabs and look at the "promotions" rating.
Spread betting is a fairly new betting method offered by very few platforms. You have the option to buy or sell through a spread. For example, in the over/under market you can have a sell option at 2.1 and a buy option at 2.4. If you buy, you want the game to end with 3 goals or more and if you sell you want the game to end with 2 goals or less. For example, for a bet of 10€, if you buy at 2.4 and the match ends with 3 goals, you win 0.6*10=6€. If the match ends with 4 goals, you win 1.6*10=16€. If the match ends with 1 goal, you lose 1.4*10=14€. Still for a bet of 10€, if you sell on odds of 2.1, you win 0.1*10=1€ if the match ends with 2 goals and lose 0.9*10=9€ if the match ends with 3 goals. This shows that you can win more if you are right but also lose more if you are completely wrong. Matched betting is applicable on these platforms but this method is closer to value betting because you have to know if the price offered by the spread is interesting.
Here are the interesting strategies if you want to win in sports betting and online casinos. This guide is published for introductory purposes, the book I will be releasing will go into more detail and clearly explain all the valid strategies. In summary, focus on arbitrage betting and matched betting if you are risk averse and trading, value betting and spread betting if you are not.